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axnt20 knhc 071802
twdat
tropical weather discussion
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
205 pm edt tue sep 07 2010
tropical weather discussion for north america ... central
america ... gulf of mexico ... caribbean sea ... northern sections of
south america ... and atlantic ocean to the african coast from the
equator to 32n. the following information is based on satellite
imagery ... meteorological analysis ... weather observations ... and
radar.
based on 1200 utc surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 utc.
... special feature...
tropical storm hermine is centered inland over southern texas
near 29. 3n 98. 4w at 07/1800 utc ... or about 15 mi sse of san
antonio texas moving n at 17 kt. the estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gust to 45 kt. please see latest nhc intermediate public
advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcpat5/wtnt35 knhc and the
full forecast/advisory under awips/wmo headers miatcmat5/wtnt25
knhc for more details. heavy rain with embedded isolated
thunderstorms are inland over central and se texas ... with the
possibility of isolated tornadoes developing in these regions.
the bands associated to the system continue to affect the nw
gulf n of 23n w of 94w. water levels along the texas coast are
gradually receding.. but will likely remain above normal for the
next day or two.
... tropical waves...
a tropical wave is over the far eastern tropical atlantic
basin ... analyzed along 21w s of 18n moving west 10 - 15 kt.
satellite derived winds indicate broad cyclonic turning around
the wave axis centered near 14n. this wave is embedded in a
surge of deep level moisture as indicated on total precipitable
water imagery. scattered moderate to strong convection is
between the coast of west africa and 26w from 8n to 18n.
... itcz...
the itcz axis is analyzed from 11n24w continuing westward along
10n35w 11n45w 10n55w 12n65w. scattered moderate to strong
convection is between the coast of west africa and 26w from 8n
to 17n. this area of convection is also associated with a
tropical wave along 21w s of 18n. similar convection is south of
the itcz from 4n to 8n between 23w and 36w ... associated with the
monsoonal troughiness in the eastern tropical atlc e of 36w.
... discussion...
gulf of mexico...
although tropical storm hermine has moved inland over southern
texas ... the bands associated to the system continue to be the
primary focus this afternoon for the nw gulf of mexico. see
special features above for more details. elsewhere e of 93w ... a
longwave upper level trough extends across the ne gulf and
northern half of the florida peninsula noted by strong
subsidence aloft on water vapor imagery. this upper level
feature is generating scattered showers over the southeastern
half of the gulf s of 27n e of 88w. stronger showers and
thunderstorms are over the florida straits moving westward into
the gulf. computer models suggest that the upper level scenario
will continue to generate convection in the eastern region of
the gulf s of 28n e of 87w over the next 24 to 48 hrs ... with the
strongest convection across the florida straits.
caribbean sea...
the remnant 1010 mb low pressure center of gaston is about 130
nm se of the island of puerto rico near 17n63w. a surface trough
extends ne from the low center across eastern puerto rico into
the atlc along 18n65w. the convection generated from this system
covers the area n of 15n between 62w and 68w. doppler radar
imagery from puerto rico indicates scattered moderate to heavy
showers and thunderstorms in this area. model guidance suggest
the low level circulation of gaston will continue to weaken over
the next 24 hours and dissipate by 48 hours as it moves west
across the n caribbean. however ... the remnant trough will
continue to generate convection across this region during the
forecast period. scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are over the sw basin s of 15n w of 75w ... associated with nearby
convergence in the vicinity of the monsoonal trough/itcz.
computer models suggest this area of convection will linger in
this region over the next 24 hrs. relatively dry/stable
conditions are noted elsewhere across the caribbean this
afternoon.
atlantic ocean...
a broad elongated upper level low centered between eastern cuba
and jamaica supports a rather weak surface trough analyzed from
24n74w to 20n77w enhancing scattered weak convection within 70
nm east of the trough axis. a longwave upper level trough is
moving off the eastern seaboard supporting a surface trough
analyzed from 31n75w to 27n78w producing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection to the far western atlc w of 75w
including the florida straits. this area of convection is
expected to linger in this region over the next 24 hrs. a
surface trough extends from the remnant low center of gaston in
the ne caribbean across puerto rico into the atlantic from
17n63w to 23n66w. scattered weak convection is within 200 nm
west of the trough axis n of 20n ... expected to become less in 24
to 48 hrs. another surface trough is over the eastern atlc
extending from 22n34w to 15n25w generating scattered moderate
convection within 70 nm on either side of the axis n of 16n.
this system will continue to move west with convection over the
next 24 hours. elsewhere across the discussion area ... broad
mid/upper level sub - tropical ridge dominates the atlc and
supports the surface 1024 mb high near 37n32w.
for additional information please visit
http://www. hurricanes. gov/marine
$$
garcia
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